Beiyang Dream

Chapter 3 The First Butterfly Effect of the Jiawu Year

April 17th, the fifteenth year of the Guangxu Emperor's reign, in the afternoon.

Tianjin, the west study room of the Beiyang Military Academy.

The seven or eight instructors in the room were divided into two groups—one group, led by Hannagan, was looking at the math and drawing papers; the other group, led by Yinchang, was looking at the policy essays.

Yin Chang was holding a cup of tea, squinting as he looked at the policy document in his hand.

As he looked at it, he nodded, seemingly quite appreciative.

"Not bad," Yin Chang put down his teacup and said to the instructors around him, "Although Duan Zhiquan's article is still the same old stuff, it is well-organized and deeply understands the essence of German and Austrian military science. Guarding the ports, patrolling the sea, and combining land and sea operations—it has covered everything that needs to be said."

He placed the policy proposal on the far right of the table—the "first-class" position.

"This time, Duan Zhiquan will most likely be number one." Yin Chang sighed, a mix of relief and helplessness in his voice. "If everyone at my Beiyang Military Academy were like Duan Zhiquan, what would we have to worry about..."

"No."

A harsh voice interrupted him.

Yin Chang was taken aback and turned to look.

It was Hannagan who spoke.

"Duan isn't number one this time," Hannagan said in his Prussian-accented Chinese. "Chang is."

"Chang?" Yin Chang frowned. "Which Chang?"

"Chang Desheng," Hannagan said. "He's the only one with the surname Chang in the military academy."

The examination room fell silent for a moment.

The instructors looked at each other, their faces showing disbelief.

Yin Chang put down his teacup, stood up, and walked over to Hannagan: "Mr. Hannagan, you said... Chang Desheng is in first place?"

"Yes." Hannagan pulled two papers from the table and pushed them in front of Yin Chang. "His math score is perfect. His drawing score," he paused, "is also perfect."

Now everyone was looking at Hannagan.

Yin Chang's voice was a little dry: "Mr. Hannagan, you...you've never given a perfect score for a drawing!"

"That's because I've never seen a drawing that gets a perfect score at the Beiyang Military Academy." Hannagan tapped the drawing on the table with his finger. "But the one Chang drew today is perfect."

Yin Chang looked down.

It was a cross-sectional drawing of a gun emplacement. The lines were impeccably clean, perfectly straight, without a single flaw. The dimensions were clearly marked, using Arabic numerals and English letter codes—that's how they marked the dimensions in schools these days.

But what surprised Yin Chang were several details in the picture.

The ventilation shaft is located on the back side of the ammunition depot. The passageway to the ammunition depot has an angled design—this is to prevent fragmentation. The thickness of the breastwork is marked as "three feet and six inches," with a note in smaller print next to it stating "rammed earth three times, soaked in water for seven days."

These are all insider tips that only experts know.

Yin Chang had studied in Germany. Although his grades at the Berlin Military Academy weren't great and he barely managed to graduate, he had seen good things and had a broad perspective.

Chang Desheng's drawing would be considered top-notch even at the Berlin Military Academy.

"This..." Yin Chang looked up at Hannagan, "Is this really painted by Chang Desheng?"

"I watched him draw it with my own eyes," Hannagan said. "There's no mistake."

A teacher surnamed Li nearby couldn't help but interject, "Mr. Hannagan, could it be... cheating?"

Yin Chang glared at him: "How can you cheat on drawing? If you don't have real skills, even if I gave you the original drawing to trace, you still couldn't reach this level."

Instructor Li was momentarily speechless, but still unwilling to give up: "But Chang Desheng... he only got six points in total across three subjects in the last monthly exam!"

"He said he's been working hard this month," Hannagan interrupted him.

"Just one month..." Instructor Li wanted to say more.

"Perhaps he's a genius," Hannagan added.

The room fell silent again.

genius.

The words carried a different weight when they came from Hannagan's mouth. This German usually looked at Chinese students like they were monkeys—clever monkeys, but still monkeys.

Now he's calling himself a "genius"!

The Beiyang Army also had geniuses, as foreigners had described!

Yin Chang took a deep breath and hurried back to his seat. Before he even sat down, he said to a young instructor next to him, "Go and find Chang Desheng's policy essay paper."

The instructor responded and rummaged through a pile of already graded papers stacked in the corner. After searching for a while, he finally pulled one out from the bottom and handed it over with a slightly embarrassed expression.

"Sir, here... it's rated 'inferior'."

Yin Chang took it and, after just one glance, knew why it was classified as inferior.

Those characters were fucking scrambled.

The strokes are uneven, the characters vary in size, and the ink is applied in varying shades. Some strokes are even connected, requiring careful observation to decipher what the characters are.

Judging this calligraphy as "inferior" is truly not unfair.

But Yin Chang patiently sat down and began to read.

After all, this policy proposal was written by what foreigners call a "genius"!

How could foreigners have bad taste?

But the very first sentence made Yin Chang frown.

"Students are categorized into three levels: superior, middle, and inferior, based on how much money they spend."

In plain language.

Yin Chang sighed inwardly, thinking to himself, "Is Chang Desheng treating policy discussions like a teahouse storytelling performance? Three policies: superior, middle, and inferior?"

But he continued reading.

When he saw "The best strategy: strike first," a smirk twitched at the corner of his mouth—arrogance.

When he saw the suggestion, "While Japan is not prepared and our navy still has a significant advantage, let's strike first," he shook his head—a scholar's view.

He slowed down when he saw the "middle strategy" section.

"Training the new-style army... entirely according to the German-equipped drill manual..."

"Adjusting defense plans for each port...the artillery emplacements are inanimate objects..."

When Yin Chang saw the words, "The Japanese are cheap on the other side, but warships are expensive. They can't possibly use warships to exchange for our artillery batteries," his hand suddenly stopped.

This guy seems, might, seems... to be a fucking genius!

He stared at that line of text for a full ten breaths.

Then he suddenly stood up.

Because of the hasty movement, the chair leg scraped against the blue brick floor with a "screeching" sound.

Everyone in the room was looking at him.

Yin Chang ignored them. He read the sentence again, then looked up, his expression changing—not surprise, but rather the kind of sudden enlightenment one feels when someone is enlightened by a genius.

"Yes..." he murmured, "Ironclad warships are more valuable than human lives... The Japanese are so poor, how could they bear to use warships to storm the fortress?"

Yin Chang lowered his head again to look at the policy essays.

"So this money should be spent on 'rear defense.' Behind each fort, build several trenches, construct more bunkers, and equip them with a battalion of infantry..."

He quickly did some mental calculations.

A single Krupp 210mm coastal gun, including the gun itself and the bunker, plus kickbacks from all sides, would cost at least 120,000 taels of silver. The plan was to build forty such guns at the three ports of Lushun, Weihai, and Dagu—a project that would cost 4.8 million taels of silver.

However, if we follow this strategy, building ten fewer forts would save 1.2 million taels of silver. This money could then be used to construct fortifications behind the remaining thirty forts and equip them with infantry…

enough.

Not only is it enough, but there's even some left to share with everyone...

Yin Chang suddenly turned his head and looked at the gentleman sitting at the other end of the reading room who had not spoken.

Zhou Fu, Tianjin Customs Commissioner.

Li Hongzhang's top confidant and the de facto operator of the military academy. He's here today to represent Li Hongzhang in inspecting and reviewing the examination papers.

"Lord Zhou," Yin Chang said, "here is a policy essay... quite insightful."

Zhou Fu was slowly sipping her tea when she heard this and looked up: "Oh? Lord Yin finds this insightful?"

"Yes." Yin Chang took the policy document and walked over, handing it to Li Zhongtang with both hands. "This humble official thinks... it is advisable to have Li Zhongtang take a look."

Zhou Fu didn't take it, but glanced at the scrawled handwriting on the paper and frowned slightly.

Yin Chang quickly added, "The handwriting is a bit ugly, but the content... is spot on. Especially the analysis of the fort defense and Japan's national strength, I think it hits the nail on the head."

Zhou Fu then took it and looked down at it.

He read very slowly.

When he saw "strike first, win big," he smiled and shook his head.

When he saw the words "millions of taels of silver for training new troops," he tapped his fingers on the table.

When he saw the part about "the fort being an inanimate object", he sat up straight.

He put down his teacup when he saw the phrase "Ironclad warships are more valuable than human lives".

When Zhou Fu saw the last "delaying tactic"—"use a ship to hold off Japan for five years"—he fell silent.

This silence lasted for the time it takes to drink half a cup of tea.

Then he looked up at Yin Chang and asked, "How old is Chang Desheng?"

"In his early twenties," Yin Chang said.

"What's your background?"

"The son of Chang Fuhai, a clerk in Tianjin." Yin Chang paused, "His family... wasn't wealthy."

Zhou Fu nodded and didn't ask any further questions. Instead, he carefully folded the policy document, put it in his sleeve, and stood up.

"Lord Yin," he said, "I will take this policy proposal back to the yamen. I will report it to Minister Li."

"Yes." Yin Chang bowed.

Zhou Fu walked to the door, then stopped, turned back to look at Yin Chang, and asked, "What does Lord Yin think of this young man?"

Yin Chang thought for a moment and said, "His talent can be used, but his mind... needs to be observed."

"Okay." Zhou Fu nodded and left.

......

Half an hour later, in Tianjin, at the Zhili Governor-General's Office.

In the back study, Li Hongzhang was sitting in a grand chair, resting with his eyes closed.

He was sixty-six years old this year, and most of his hair was white, but he still stood up straight. He was wearing casual clothes—a blue silk long gown with a black satin jacket over it, without a hat, revealing his half-bald head with a small braid.

Several official documents were spread out on the table, all concerning the additional budget for the Weihaiwei Forts. The official in charge of the project reported that the original plan to build ten forts would require an additional 80,000 taels of silver due to rising stone prices and labor shortages.

Eighty thousand taels.

Li Hongzhang opened his eyes, looked at the official document, and felt a surge of irritation.

Where will we get these 80,000 taels?

He was annoyed when he heard footsteps outside the door.

"Your Excellency," Zhou Fu's voice rang out from outside the door, "this student requests an audience."

"Come in," Li Hongzhang said.

The door opened, and Zhou Fu entered, bowing respectfully.

"Sit down." Li Hongzhang gestured to the chair beside him. "Have you finished grading the papers? Who came in first?"

"Reporting to Your Excellency, the top place is..." Zhou Fu paused, "Changde Sheng from Tianjin, Zhili."

Li Hongzhang raised an eyebrow: "Chang Desheng? Never heard of him. What about Duan Zhiquan?"

"Duan Zhiquan came in second," Zhou Fu said. "Chang Desheng got full marks in both mathematics and drawing. His German instructor, Mr. Hannagan, praised his drawing skills highly, saying that they were...perfect."

"Oh?" Li Hongzhang sat up straighter. "The military academy has produced a talent that Hannagan speaks highly of?"

He picked up his teacup and blew away the foam. "And what about his policy essay? What did he write?"

Zhou Fu took out the policy essay he had copied by hand from his sleeve and handed it over with both hands.

"Your Excellency, Chang Desheng's calligraphy is too ugly. I was afraid it would offend your eyes, so I copied it," Zhou Fu said. "It's exactly the same."

Li Hongzhang took it, put on his reading glasses, and looked down at it.

The opening was written in plain language, which made Li Hongzhang frown. When he saw the phrase "the first to strike wins," he shook his head and muttered, "Arrogant."

But he continued reading anyway.

Upon seeing the "middle strategy" section and the phrase "training a new-style army," Li Hongzhang tapped his fingers on the table—he had thought about this before, but hadn't dared to mention it. The upright officials in the court reacted as if "training a new army" was a death sentence, saying it was "wasting national funds and raising a tiger to cause trouble."

When Li Hongzhang saw that "the fortifications are inanimate objects and cannot be moved," he frowned.

Zhou Fu stepped forward and pointed to the line of words: "Your Excellency, look here..."

Li Hongzhang looked in the direction he was pointing.

"The Japanese are cheap on the other side, but warships are expensive. They won't use warships to exchange for our forts. They will definitely send small boats to land on the nearby beaches first, and then send the army to circle around to the rear of the forts and attack from both sides."

Li Hongzhang stared at the line of text for a long time.

Then he suddenly exclaimed "Ah!"

The sound wasn't loud, but it was exceptionally clear in the quiet study.

Zhou Fu looked up and saw the expression on Li Hongzhang's face—first stunned, then suddenly realizing.

"Yes..." Li Hongzhang murmured, "How could I not have thought of such an obvious truth? Ironclad warships are precious... human lives are worthless..."

Li Dazhong thought to himself: Let alone the miserable Japanese, even on the Qing side, human lives are not as valuable as ironclad warships!

If Ding Ruchang were to use the Dingyuan and Zhenyuan rockets to ram the Japanese coastal defense forts, he would be dismissed and investigated upon his return!

He recalled his inspection tour of Weihaiwei last year, where he saw the newly built forts—rows of Krupp cannons, their muzzles raised high, pointing towards the sea, looking imposing. Any ironclad warship that dared to approach would be forced to return for major repairs after taking a single hit!

But what's behind the gun emplacements?

It was an empty lot, without even a low wall.

He didn't pay much attention to it at the time, but looking at this strategy now...

Li Hongzhang felt incredibly lucky!

"More importantly," Zhou Fu whispered from the side, "this plan is just a slight adjustment to the layout. Build fewer cannons on the front, dig trenches and build low walls along the rear, and station one or two battalions of soldiers—it won't cost much, and we can even save some money."

Li Hongzhang nodded, thinking to himself: "Spending less money and taking no risks, this is truly the best strategy!"

He looked down and came across the "worst strategy" section, where he saw the "delaying tactic".

"Use a single ship to hold Japan back for five years."

Li Hongzhang was speechless upon seeing this.

This worst-case scenario really hit the nail on the head. Spending two or three million to buy a boat and guaranteeing five years of safety—is there a better strategy?

The study was so quiet that you could hear the ticking of the grandfather clock.

After a full cup of tea's time, Li Hongzhang finally put down his policy essay and took off his reading glasses.

He leaned back in the armchair, closed his eyes, and tapped his fingers lightly on the armrest, as if he was savoring something.

He opened his eyes after being knocked seven or eight times.

"Very well." Li Hongzhang spoke, his voice calm. "What a brilliant strategy of delaying."

He looked at Zhou Fu: "Where is this person now?"

......

"This person" is currently strolling around the streets of Tianjin with his sleeves tucked in.

After finishing his exams, Chang Desheng felt relieved and wanted to get some fresh air. Cao Kun said, "It's my treat," so he came along.

The two left the school and walked east along the Haihe River. This area was the most bustling part of Tianjin, lined with shops and teeming with people.

But the more Chang Desheng walked, the more uneasy he felt.

Several men, also from the Huai Army, squatted by the roadside smoking pipes. Their uniforms were patched upon patched, and their eyes were vacant as they stared at the ground. A boy, barely a teenager, lay by the ditch, reaching into it to scoop up rotten vegetable leaves floating in. A convoy of wheelbarrows creaked past, the man pushing them straining with all his might, veins bulging on his neck, the mountain of goods piled on the carts towering above him.

Turning my head, I could see a sign that read "No expense spared" hanging at the entrance of the silk shop, and the clattering of abacus beads could be heard from inside. Next to the silk shop, a fat man in a silk robe sat in front of a barber's pole, his eyes half-closed, half-asleep, while the barber's razor scraped across his bald head.

Even more conspicuous were those foreign gentlemen.

Chang Desheng and Cao Kun are now standing opposite the British concession in Tianjin—on the other side of the Haihe River, in the Zizhulin British concession.

A British naval officer, accompanied by two British sailors carrying rifles, dressed in white uniforms, was seen strode confidently down the street, seemingly on patrol.

Chang Desheng looked at it and cursed inwardly: Who the hell is this territory?

"Zhenbang," Cao Kun nudged him, lowering his voice, "look over there."

Chang Desheng looked in the direction he was pointing.

On the north bank of the Haihe River, in the middle of Chinatown, a short man in a kimono and wooden clogs stood in front of a photo studio on a street corner. He was in his thirties, with a dark complexion and a mustache. He didn't go in to have his picture taken; instead, he stood with his hands behind his back, looking up at the signboard hanging under the eaves, examining it very carefully.

After watching for a while, he took out a small notebook from his pocket and started drawing something with a pencil.

Two words suddenly popped into Chang Desheng's mind—spy!

That little dwarf is definitely a Japanese spy! He's drawing... He turned his head and looked around, noticing a Huai Army barracks not far away. Two listless sentries stood at the gate, and many people were going in and out. Judging from their clothes, they were Huai Army soldiers, but they really didn't have any military bearing...

"What's wrong?" Cao Kun asked him.

"Nothing," Chang Desheng said, while glancing at the Japanese man again.

I've already made up my mind: given the chance, I'll set up a spy organization myself...

As he was thinking, someone suddenly patted his shoulder. When he turned around, he saw that it was Feng Guozhang, the "second son of the Beiyang Zhili clique".

Feng Guozhang was a little out of breath, his round face covered in sweat. I wonder if he had run all the way from the Beiyang Military Academy?

"Zhenbang! Zhenbang!" Feng Guozhang wiped his sweat. "I've finally found you... Quick, hurry back, Lord Yin is looking for you!"

Chang Desheng was stunned for a moment.

Is the client... or perhaps the ultimate client, about to meet me?

He didn't seem too surprised, he just nodded and said, "Okay, let's go."

He turned around and walked back, his steps neither hurried nor slow.

Feng Guozhang followed behind, watching his back, and thought to himself: This guy is quite composed, he didn't even ask why.

At this moment, Cao Kun leaned over and asked, "Hua Fu, do you know why Lord Yin is looking for Zhenbang?"

Feng Guozhang turned to look at Cao Kun and said with a smile, "Zhenbang got first place this time and is going to Germany!"